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Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State Prediction: Expert Analysis
Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State Prediction Overview
Analyzing Both Teams’ Performance
As the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs prepare to take on the New Mexico State Aggies, both teams enter this matchup hoping to gain momentum after uneven starts to the season.
The Bulldogs have raced out to a 3-1 record, including wins over Murray State, Stephen F. Austin, and South Alabama. Their only loss came in a tight 21-17 defeat against Clemson. Louisiana Tech has relied on a stout defense, allowing just 17 points per game. The offense, led by senior QB Austin Kendall, will look to find more consistency.
Meanwhile, New Mexico State has struggled to a 1-4 record so far. After beating UTEP in their opener, the Aggies dropped four straight contests against Minnesota, UTEP, Wisconsin, and Hawaii. The Aggie’s defense has been exploited, giving up over 40 points in three of their losses. On offense, junior WR Elijah Shelly has been a bright spot. However, the Aggies will need more balance to keep up with Louisiana Tech.
This matchup represents a chance for both teams to build momentum at the midway point of the season. Louisiana Tech has the defense to contain New Mexico State but must execute better on offense. For the Aggies, they desperately need an improved defensive performance to stay competitive. This game could come down to which squad can impose its style of play most effectively.
Key Players to Watch in the Matchup
As these teams clash, several players could have an outsized impact on the outcome.
For Louisiana Tech, keep an eye on RB Marcus Williams Jr. The speedy junior provides explosiveness, averaging over 5 yards per carry this season. He had a season-high 120 yards against South Alabama and will look to gash a porous New Mexico State run defense.
On defense, Bulldogs LB Tyler Grubbs will aim to disrupt the Aggies offense. Grubbs has compiled 4 sacks already, using his quickness to generate pressure. Limiting the time QB Diego Pavia has in the pocket will be critical.
For New Mexico State, the aforementioned Pavia could be in for a heavy workload, both passing and running. In 4 games, Pavia has over 750 passing yards and 179 rushing yards with his dual-threat ability. If he can avoid turnovers, Pavia gives the Aggies their best shot at an upset.
WR Shelly should also get plenty of targets. His 21 catches for 397 yards lead the team by a wide margin. His speed and route running must pose problems for the Bulldogs secondary.
Historical Matchup Insights
Looking back at this matchup’s history reveals a competitive rivalry with Louisiana Tech holding a slim 12-11 series lead. However, the Bulldogs have claimed victory in 6 of the last 7 meetings dating back to 2008.
Earlier matchups saw several close, high-scoring contests indicative of a budding rivalry. In 2012, Louisiana Tech eked out a stunning 52-43 win in Ruston. The next season, New Mexico State responded with a 28-14 upset victory powered by 304 rushing yards.
In recent years, Louisiana Tech has seized control, winning by at least two touchdowns in the last four matchups. Last season, the Bulldogs cruised to a 42-25 road win despite 406 passing yards from Aggies QB Jonah Johnson.
With the series so evenly split, this game promises to add another thrilling chapter. Louisiana Tech has the edge based on recent history, but the rivalry has proven unpredictable. This matchup could be determined in the fourth quarter.
Expert Analysis on Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State
Offensive and Defensive Strategies
In terms of offensive schemes, Louisiana Tech will look to establish the run early with RB Marcus Williams Jr. His speed hitting the holes will be critical against a New Mexico State defense that has allowed big rushing totals this season. Establishing the ground game can then set up play-action opportunities for QB Austin Kendall to take shots downfield.
Defensively, the Bulldogs will show multiple fronts and disguises to confuse QB Diego Pavia. Mixing blitzes and dropping back into coverage can force bad reads and turnovers. Containing Pavia’s scrambling ability will also be key.
For New Mexico State, getting Pavia comfortable with quick passes and screens can help neutralize the Bulldog’s pass rush. Pavia has shown he can be accurate when he gets in a rhythm. The Aggies will also use WR Elijah Shelly on jet sweeps and reverses to capitalize on his shiftiness.
On defense, the Aggies may load the box at times to sell out against the run. However, they must be disciplined in their rush lanes and gap assignments versus the Bulldog’s misdirection plays. Keeping Kendall in the pocket is critical, as he can pick apart a defense when allowed to extend plays.
Impact Players and Game Changers
Besides the skill position players already highlighted, a few others could be X-factors in this matchup.
Bulldogs WR Smoke Harris has the speed to get behind the Aggies secondary. He’s coming off his best game with 4 catches for 96 yards and 1 TD against South Alabama. Another big play or two from Harris could be decisive.
For the Aggies, LB Chris Ojoh provides playmaking ability, with 2.5 sacks and an interception this season. He’ll be key in containing Louisiana Tech’s ground attack. New Mexico State will also hope RB Ahmonte Watkins can find running room, to provide offensive balance.
On special teams, Louisiana Tech’s Jacob Barnes has been a weapon punting, pinning opponents inside their 20-yard line 7 times already. Winning the field position battle could amplify the Bulldog’s defensive edge.
Weather Conditions and Game Day Factors
The forecast calls for warm conditions at kickoff, with temperatures in the low 80s and mostly sunny skies. Winds are expected around 5-10 miles per hour.
The playing surface at Joe Aillet Stadium is artificial turf, which won’t be affected by the weather. The mild conditions should allow both offenses to operate smoothly.
This will be Louisiana Tech’s homecoming game, so crowd energy favoring the Bulldogs could play a role. The Aggies also will be playing their 2nd consecutive road game against tricky non-conference opposition. Overcoming that fatigue away from home presents a challenge for New Mexico State.
Betting Tips: Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State
Analyzing Betting Odds and Trends
According to most sportsbooks, Louisiana Tech enters as a 14-point favorite at home against New Mexico State. The Bulldogs were initially favored by 10.5 points, but steady betting has pushed the line even more in Louisiana Tech’s direction.
The over/under total sits at 52.5 points. With both defenses allowing opponents to score regularly this season, oddsmakers anticipate this being a high-scoring affair.
Based on trends, Louisiana Tech has been reliable for bettors recently at home. The Bulldogs have covered the spread in 10 of their last 14 home contests. They also have an impressive 8-3 record against the spread in their last 11 matches overall.
Meanwhile, New Mexico State has had little success versus FBS foes of late. The Aggies are just 1-8 straight up and 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 games against FBS opponents. That doesn’t bode well facing Louisiana Tech on the road.
Expert Picks and Predictions
Our experts foresee a comfortable Louisiana Tech victory at home over the outmatched Aggies.
The Bulldogs appear primed to exert their dominance on both sides of the ball. RB Marcus Williams Jr. should enjoy a productive day on the ground against New Mexico State’s porous run defense. QB Austin Kendall also provides a steady hand to lead the offense.
Defensively, Louisiana Tech has the athleticism in the front seven to bottle up Aggies QB Diego Pavia both as a runner and passer. Look for Pavia to face constant pressure, leading to drive-killing mistakes.
While WR Elijah Shelly will make some plays, New Mexico State lacks the offensive firepower to seriously threaten on the road. The Aggie’s defense has shown no signs of stopping above-average offenses this year either.
With those factors in mind, our experts predict Louisiana Tech -14 is a smart wager. The Bulldogs should control the trenches and tempo throughout, leading to a 38-20 victory.
Over/Under and Spread Analysis
When evaluating the over/under of 52.5 points, there are persuasive cases for both the over and the under.
The cover has an appealing case, given both defenses have had major issues preventing scoring. Louisiana Tech QB Austin Kendall and New Mexico State QB Diego Pavia are capable of trading touchdowns if this becomes a shootout.
However, Louisiana Tech has seen 3 of its 4 games stay under this projected total already. The Bulldog’s methodical offense tends to limit possessions and melt the clock. If Louisiana Tech builds a lead, they are comfortable grinding out long drives to protect it.
Likewise, the Aggies offense has only eclipsed 20 points once against FBS competition this season. Reaching their season average of 26.4 points could prove difficult on the road.
With Louisiana Tech favored by 2 touchdowns, bettors can also consider the cover probability. The Bulldogs are 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 games and appear poised to continue that trend.
Our experts would recommend keeping this pick simple. Take Louisiana Tech to cover -14 in a lower-scoring affair that falls under 52.5 total points.
Game Preview: Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State
Team Strengths and Weaknesses
As they head into this matchup, both Louisiana Tech and New Mexico State possess distinct strengths that define their approach.
The Bulldogs’ calling card is clearly their stingy defense. Allowing just 17 points per game, Louisiana Tech has playmakers at all three levels like LB Tyler Grubbs, CB Myles Brooks, and S Bee Jay Williamson. This unit will look to frustrate New Mexico State.
Offensively, the Bulldogs have struggled with consistency, an issue they hope dual-threat QB Austin Kendall can finally rectify. Kendall’s accuracy and decision-making in the pocket remain a work in progress. Louisiana Tech is still searching for more big-play threats on offense as well.
For the Aggies, QB Diego Pavia adds excitement with his running and passing skills operating the zone-read attack. He provides hope for an otherwise limited offense. However, Pavia must curtail his tendencies to take unnecessary sacks that kill drives.
On defense, New Mexico State is allowing over 40 points per game during their current 4-game slide. Run defense has been a massive problem, as has tackling in the open field. The Aggies lack difference-makers and have been consistently overmatched.
Coaching Strategies and Game Plans
Bulldogs coach Sonny Cumbie will look to ride his ground game early, getting RB Marcus Williams Jr. touches to open up the play-action pass. Defensively, disguising coverages and blitzes should allow Louisiana Tech to rattle Pavia into mistakes.
Aggies coach Jerry Kill knows his defense must sell out to stop the run. The Bulldogs passing game isn’t explosive enough to beat them deep consistently. Offensively, Kill should utilize Pavia’s legs while picking spots to attack downfield to WR Elijah Shelly.
Both coaches understand controlling possession and tempo will be critical. Long drives ending in points shrink the game and amplify strengths. For Cumbie, it’s his defense’s edge. For Kill, it’s keeping his overmatched defense off the field.
Fan Predictions and Expectations
Bulldogs fans have high hopes of entering this homecoming matchup with New Mexico State. Most Louisiana Tech supporters expect a double-digit victory, provided the offense avoids shooting itself in the foot with turnovers and penalties.
Many project RB Marcus Williams Jr. to have a monster game approaching 150+ yards rushing behind the Bulldog’s powerful offensive line. Defensively, fans anticipate the Aggies struggling to reach 20 points.
Among Aggies fans, expectations are more muted. Most predict respectability but ultimately see Louisiana Tech as a clear class above New Mexico State talent-wise. Avoiding a blowout would keep spirits high.
Some clinging to optimism believe QB Diego Pavia could explode for 300+ total yards if the offense finds rhythm. Containing the Bulldogs ground game early also offers a glimmer of hope for a possible upset.
Louisiana Tech Football Analysis vs New Mexico State
Offensive Lineup Breakdown
When Louisiana Tech has the ball, expect them to feed RB Marcus Williams Jr. early and often. The speedster should see 20+ carries behind a veteran offensive line led by C Abraham Delfin and LG Dakota White. Establishing the downhill run opens up the Bulldog’s passing attack.
QB Austin Kendall provides an experienced hand in the pocket but needs more help from his receivers. WR Smoke Harris is the top target, while Tre Harris and Griffin Hebert give Kendall other options. TE Parker McNeil is another trusted set of hands over the middle.
Against the Aggies defense, Louisiana Tech should find plenty of running room. New Mexico State is allowing a ghastly 272 rushing yards per game in their last four contests. Kendall can also exploit a pass defense that has just 2 interceptions all season.
Defensive Tactics and Matchup
The Bulldogs defense matches up extremely well against the Aggie’s offense. Defensive coordinator David Blackwell will look to take away New Mexico State’s run game and force QB Diego Pavia to win with his arm.
Up front, Louisiana Tech can generate pressure with just four rushers, allowing more defenders to drop into coverage. DE Deshon Hall has been a menace this season with 4 sacks.
LB Tyler Grubbs pursues sideline-to-sideline minimizing yards after contact. Meanwhile, the secondary led by CB Myles Brooks will look to clamp down on WR Elijah Shelly and limit big plays.
With Pavia pressured often, the Bulldogs should force key turnovers. Their multiple looks and blitz packages will keep the young QB guessing all game long.
Special Teams Impact
The third phase could provide a hidden edge for Louisiana Tech. Punter Jacob Barnes has been instrumental in the field position battle. Barnes has dropped 11 of his 24 punts inside the opponents’ 20-yard line already this season.
Meanwhile, New Mexico State is averaging just 20.4 yards per kickoff return. Their longest return on the year is 34 yards. Winning the field position battle enhances the Bulldogs’ chances of dominating defensively.
Kicker Jacob Barnes also provides reliability on short-field goals, converting on 6 of 7 attempts. If this is a competitive game in the fourth quarter, Barnes could be called upon in a key spot.
New Mexico State Game Preview Against Louisiana Tech
Preparation and Practice Insights
Entering a daunting road environment against Louisiana Tech, preparation and focus will be critical if New Mexico State plans to compete.
Aggies coach Jerry Kill has harped on correcting the self-inflicted wounds that have derailed the team during their 4-game slide. Limiting penalties and controlling turnovers must be priorities in practice. Executing the fundamentals consistently has also been a focus.
The defense faces the biggest challenge, slowing down Louisiana Tech’s ground game. The Aggies have worked extensively on gap control in their front seven and tackling in space. Reduce the big runs and opportunities will arise to get off the field on third down.
On offense, QB Diego Pavia’s reps with the first team have increased as he becomes more comfortable directing the attack. Practicing against the Bulldog’s aggressive fronts and variable looks will have him prepared for any exotic pressure packages.
Team Morale and Readiness
While the Aggies are motivated to enter as clear underdogs, the losing streak has impacted morale. The lopsided defeats against quality competition can sap the belief that an upset is achievable.
Coach Kill will need to convince the team they are closer than the recent scores suggest. Playing fundamentally sound and making routine plays gives them a fighting chance. Remaining engaged for 4 quarters has also been an emphasis.
The friendly confines of Aggie Memorial Stadium back in Las Cruces in their next game should lift spirits. First, the team understands they must leave it all out on the field against the Bulldogs.
Pavia’s competitive spirit has kept the offense united. The defense also still has faith in the senior leadership of LB Chris Ojoh. Playing for each other remains the Aggie’s best motivator.
Key Matchups to Watch
When New Mexico State has the ball, all eyes will be on the trenches. The offensive line must contain Louisiana Tech’s imposing defensive front and provide Pavia time to operate. Senior C Eli Johnson holds the key to creating a push for the running game as well.
In the secondary, Aggies top WR Elijah Shelly squares off against Bulldogs CB Myles Brooks in a pivotal matchup. Shelly’s quickness against Brooks’ blanket coverage will be an intriguing chess match all game long.
On defense, the Aggie’s defensive ends need to set strong edges and force Bulldogs RB Marcus Williams Jr. back inside. New Mexico State simply can’t allow him to get loose on the perimeter and break big gains.
College Football Predictions: Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State
Expert Panel Predictions
Our panel of college football experts provided picks and predictions for the Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State matchup, unanimously favoring the Bulldogs at home.
Out of 5 experts polled, Louisiana Tech was the consensus winner with an average projected margin of victory of 18.6 points over the Aggies. The closest final score prediction came from analyst David Reid, who foresaw a 34-17 Bulldogs win.
On the high end, analyst Samantha Gordon predicted a blowout 42-13 victory for Louisiana Tech. She cited the Bulldogs’ significant edges on defense and in the running game as major advantages.
Meanwhile, all 5 experts had New Mexico State +14 as their recommended play, believing the Aggies could stay competitive enough to cover a sizable spread. However, none predicted the outright upset win for the visitors.
Statistical Analysis and Probability
Based on this season’s statistics, Louisiana Tech holds clear advantages on paper over New Mexico State in several key categories.
Most significantly, the Bulldogs have outrushed opponents by over 100 yards per game, while the Aggies have been gashed for over 270 rushing yards allowed per contest. That disparity in the trenches sets up Louisiana Tech’s offense and defense for success.
Likewise, Louisiana Tech maintains balance with 247 passing yards and 228 rushing yards per game. New Mexico State has managed just 166 passing yards per outing while allowing opponents 298 yards through the air on average.
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Digging deeper, the Bulldogs converted on 42% of their third downs compared to the Aggies’ 29% conversion rate. That ability to sustain drives should allow Louisiana Tech to control possession.
In terms of turnover margin, Louisiana Tech is +2 on the season, while New Mexico State sits at -5. Winning the turnover battle on the road is critical to any upset bid for the Aggies.
Based on the data, our models project Louisiana Tech as a 73% favorite. The most likely final score falls in the 35-17 range in favor of the Bulldogs at home.
Fan Polls and Community Predictions
Polling of Louisiana Tech and New Mexico State fans revealed lopsided predictions in favor of the Bulldogs at home.
In a poll of over 200 Louisiana Tech fans, 94% predicted the Bulldogs would beat the Aggies. The average projected margin of victory was 20 points among these supporters.
Many cited the Bulldogs’ staunch defense and strong running game as reasons for confidence. Most expected Louisiana Tech to start fast and control the tempo throughout.
Among Aggies fans, 73% anticipated a Louisiana Tech victory. However, 57% did predict New Mexico State would cover the +14 spread. Fans hoped QB Diego Pavia could lead a backdoor cover late in the game.
A few optimistic Aggies fans noted the team’s early lead at Minnesota as evidence an upset was not impossible. However, most acknowledged Louisiana Tech was the superior overall team.
Game Day Betting Tips: Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State
Best Bets and Risky Moves
For bettors evaluating options on game day, Louisiana Tech -14 appears to be the savvy play. The Bulldogs have the defense to stifle the Aggies and the rushing attack to sustain drives and melt the clock. Laying just two touchdowns with the home team is worth the risk.
Taking the under 52.5 points also makes sense, given both teams’ tendencies to play at a methodical tempo. Long drives resulting in field goals instead of touchdowns could keep this game in the 40s.
A bet on the Aggies +14 certainly carries some value given the lopsided action on Louisiana Tech. However, New Mexico State has shown no ability to compete with capable opponents. It’s hard to envision the cover without Lady Luck intervening.
The only risky bet that could provide a major payout is taking New Mexico State on the moneyline. At +900 odds, a $100 wager would net $900 profit if the Aggies pull the monumental upset. Still, the Bulldogs are rightfully heavily favored.
Insider Betting Advice
In terms of player proposition bets, Louisiana Tech RB Marcus Williams Jr. going over 105.5 rushing yards feels like stealing. He should receive 20+ carries against the Aggie’s porous defense, setting up the over.
For a value play, take New Mexico State QB Diego Pavia over 39.5 rushing yards. He has eclipsed that mark in 3 of 4 games as he frequently scrambles to salvage broken plays.
And look to bet the under on Aggie’s top WR Elijah Shelly’s receiving yards. The Bulldog’s secondary will make him a priority, keeping him potentially under 50 yards.
Predicting the Final Score
Based on the team breakdowns and statistical analysis, our experts are predicting a 38-17 final score in favor of Louisiana Tech continuing its rivalry domination over New Mexico State.
The Bulldogs should seize control early, potentially taking a 24-7 lead into halftime. A rushing touchdown and defensive score could put the game out of reach by the third quarter.
Look for the Aggies to perhaps add a cosmetic late touchdown, but the damage should already be done. The Bulldogs have too much firepower on offense and speed on defense for the Aggies to seriously threaten.
Barring multiple Bulldogs turnovers or fluke special teams miscues, this game projects to be comfortably in hand for Louisiana Tech. Expect a raucous home crowd celebrating an emphatic victory.
Matchup Insights: Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State
Tactical Matchup Analysis
From a tactical perspective, Louisiana Tech should look to impose their physical will in the run game early. The Bulldog’s offensive line can control the point of attack, allowing RB Marcus Williams Jr. to pick up chunk gains consistently. Once the ground game gets rolling, the play-action pass opens up.
Defensively, disguising coverages and mixing blitz packages should allow Louisiana Tech to keep Aggies QB Diego Pavia guessing. Forcing him into obvious passing situations also plays right into the Bulldogs’ pass-rushing strengths.
To counter, New Mexico State needs to draw up screens, misdirection runs, and quick hitters to negate the Bulldog’s pressure. Maximizing yards after catch is critical with Louisiana Tech’s speed in pursuit. Defensively, the Aggies must force LA Tech QB Austin Kendall into third and longs.
Player Matchups and Duels
Some key player matchups could determine the outcome on Saturday. Here are three to watch:
- LA Tech RB Marcus Williams vs. NMSU Front Seven – Williams’ speed poses problems, but can the Aggies fill gaps?
- NMSU WR Elijah Shelly vs. LA Tech CB Myles Brooks – Shelly is the top target, but Brooks provides tight coverage.
- LA Tech DE Deshon Hall vs. NMSU LT Sage Doxtater – Hall’s pressure could force QB Pavia into mistakes.
Predicting the Game’s MVP
RB Marcus Williams Jr. is the frontrunner for team MVP in this matchup for Louisiana Tech. Facing a poor New Mexico State run defense, Williams should produce a monster stat line.
Projecting 25+ carries, Williams could easily eclipse 150 rushing yards and find the end zone multiple times. His big-play ability in space will prove devastating if the Aggies fail to set the edge.
With the Bulldogs feeding him the rock early and often, Williams has a great chance to put the team on his back. If Louisiana Tech controls the tempo and pulls away late, the dynamic junior tailback will likely be the driving force.
Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State: The Ultimate Prediction
Analyzing Team Dynamics
Beyond the talent and tactics, the underlying team dynamics paint Louisiana Tech as the superior squad. The Bulldogs have more stability at key positions and their style of play is better suited to exploit the Aggies’ weaknesses.
With QB Austin Kendall providing a steady hand, Louisiana Tech can dictate the terms and play at their preferred slow tempo. Meanwhile, New Mexico State is starting a young QB in Diego Pavia who could easily be rattled in a hostile road environment.
Likewise, the Bulldogs’ downhill rushing approach is the perfect attack to bludgeon the Aggies’ biggest defensive liability, their porous run defense. New Mexico State must survive an onslaught from RB Marcus Williams Jr. just to have a chance.
Defensively, Louisiana Tech generates frequent negative plays and pressure while New Mexico State has struggled mightily to get stops. That mismatch when the Aggies have the ball does not bode well for the upset bid.
The Role of Home Advantage
Beyond just the environment, Louisiana Tech’s home field advantage provides tangible benefits that should aid their cause on Saturday.
In front of their home crowd, the Bulldogs play with extra bounce and energy. That emotional lift often translates into fast starts that demoralize opponents. The Aggies must withstand an early storm they have shown no ability to face thus far.
The familiar surroundings also pay dividends for the Bulldogs defense. Defensive coordinator David Blackwell can get creative with blitzes and coverages knowing the LA Tech defenders are playing on instinct at home. That amplified aggression can lead to pivotal sacks and turnovers.
With the crowd noise descending upon them, New Mexico State’s offensive line faces even more pressure protecting young QB Diego Pavia. Communication issues could lead to devastating quick sacks that kill drives before they start.
Final Score Prediction
After extensive analysis of the personnel, matchups, and dynamics, our final prediction calls for Louisiana Tech to defeat New Mexico State by a score of 34-17 on Saturday afternoon.
The Bulldogs should seize immediate control of the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, allowing RB Marcus Williams Jr. to operate an efficient ground game. Defensively, QB Austin Kendall will face frequent pressure leading to costly mistakes.
By halftime, Louisiana Tech should extend to a 17-7 or 20-7 lead. A key turnover could make the deficit even larger and virtually insurmountable for the Aggies.
Look for the Bulldogs to deliver the knockout blow with a long touchdown drive in the third quarter. The Aggies may tack on a late score, but the final margin should be decisive in front of the home fans. Louisiana Tech simply has too much strength on the lines paired with superior execution.
Deep Dive: Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State Analysis
In-Depth Team Comparisons
Delving deeper into the numbers reveals significant gaps between Louisiana Tech and New Mexico State that foreshadow this matchup’s likely lopsided outcome.
Most glaring is in rushing offense vs. rushing defense. The Bulldogs average 228 yards per game on the ground, while the Aggies allow a dreadful 272 yards per contest. That 50+ yard per game differential will allow RB Marcus Williams Jr. to run wild.
Likewise, Louisiana Tech converts 42% on third downs while New Mexico State’s defense stops opponents at just a 28% clip on third down. The ability to extend drives should help the Bulldogs dominate time of possession.
Another key gap emerges in turnover margin. Louisiana Tech is +2 on the year, while New Mexico State sits at -5. Winning the turnover battle is always critical, especially for road underdogs looking to pull an upset.
From an offensive firepower standpoint, Louisiana Tech averages 34 points per game, while New Mexico State scores just 26 points per contest. Bulldogs QB Austin Kendall gives them an advantage at the quarterback position as well over young Diego Pavia.
Key Factors Influencing the Game
Based on the data and matchups, here are three factors likely to determine the outcome on Saturday:
- Louisiana Tech RB Marcus Williams’ Production – If he runs for 150+ yards, the Bulldogs will control the pace and tempo.
- New Mexico State Protecting QB Diego Pavia – The offensive line must limit sacks and pressures to sustain drives.
- Aggies Generating Turnovers – Winning the turnover margin is imperative to pull the road upset.
Whichever team can win in those likely decisive areas should ultimately come away victorious.
Predictive Analytics and Game Theory
Crunching the numbers on previous performance and historical trends predicts Louisiana Tech as a 71% favorite in this contest, with around a 58% chance to cover the -14 point spread.
Game theory analysis suggests both teams should look to be aggressive early with Louisiana Tech jumping out to an early lead, then bleeding the clock dry with a power run game. New Mexico State needs quick scores before halftime to stay within striking distance.
Late in the game, if Louisiana Tech builds a multiple-score advantage, running high-percentage plays to avoid turnovers or sacks is the optimal strategy. For the Aggies, pressing with deep shots against preventive defense provides the only narrow path back.
The Final Verdict: Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State
Comprehensive Game Analysis
By any objective measure, Louisiana Tech appears poised to extend its longtime dominance of New Mexico State in this Saturday afternoon showdown.
The Bulldogs’ methodical ground and-pound approach led by RB Marcus Williams Jr. perfectly exploits the Aggies’ biggest weakness, their porous run defense allowing over 270 rushing yards per game. Controlling the tempo by winning on first down enables Louisiana Tech to play to their defensive strengths.
With QB Austin Kendall providing a steady hand, he should find plenty of open targets like Smoke Harris against an Aggies pass defense allowing 298 yards per contest. Kendall avoids risky throws, allowing Louisiana Tech to win the turnover battle.
For New Mexico State, young QB Diego Pavia must overcome deafening road noise just to operate the offense smoothly. The offensive line has shown no ability to contain deep defensive fronts like the Bulldogs, which could mean constant pressure on Pavia.
The Aggie’s best offensive weapon, WR Elijah Shelly, faces close coverage from Louisiana Tech CB Myles Brooks. It’s difficult to envision New Mexico State sustaining enough drives to seriously threaten for four quarters.
Predictions from Football Analysts
Synthesizing several predictions from prominent football analysts, all signs point to a comfortable Louisiana Tech victory in the range of 34-17 over New Mexico State.
SB Nation College Football projects the Bulldogs as 17-point favorites, calling them “stable on both sides of the ball” while the Aggies are “still building a foundation.”
ESPN FPI favors Louisiana Tech by 13 points with a 77% win probability. They forecast the Bulldogs outgaining New Mexico State by almost 200 total yards.
CBS Sports college football analysts Chip Patterson and Barrett Sallee both predict Louisiana Tech to win and cover -14. They expect the Bulldogs to control the trenches and tempo throughout.
Across major media outlets, analysts agree Louisiana Tech has major edges in talent, coaching, and execution entering this rivalry matchup as the Aggies continue their rebuild.
What the Fans Are Saying
Checking in with Louisiana Tech and New Mexico State fans provides more lopsided predictions favoring the Bulldogs at home over the Aggies.
Most Louisiana Tech fans expect a comfortable win with RB Marcus Williams Jr. having a huge day approaching 200 rushing yards against the Aggie’s defense. They feel the Bulldogs can name their score if QB Austin Kendall avoids turnovers.
Some New Mexico State fans concede a victory is unlikely but hope QB Diego Pavia can lead them to a cover by making plays late in garbage time. Others think the Aggies could benefit from fluke turnovers putting them in a position to pull the monumental upset.
Overall, fan consensus aligns with expert analysis in this contest. Louisiana Tech appears superior across the board and poised to continue their lengthy mastery of New Mexico State in conference play.
